Our postcards are making a difference in Florida.

By Bob Treitman, one of the organizers behind CI’s postcarding campaigns.

Dear Postcard Writers,

Last week, I attended a meeting with the organizers of the Florida Vote By Mail (VBM) postcarding efforts, and they presented some interesting data that I wanted to share with you.

Florida is known as a purple state because its voters are nearly evenly divided between the Democratic and Republican parties. From 2000 through 2018, there were 25,985,000 Democratic votes vs. 26,015,000 GOP ones — a difference of 30,000 votes out of over 50 million. Gore lost by 537 votes. Obama won in 2012 by 1%; Clinton lost in 2016 by 1%. In 2018, Sen. Bill Nelson lost his reelection race by 10,000 votes. Every vote is critical. 

The 2020 presidential election could be won or lost in Florida — after California and Texas, Florida has the largest number of electoral college votes (tied with New York). 

In the 2018 mid-term elections, with races for both a Senate seat and the governorship, turnout among non-VBM voters was 55%. For VBM voters, it was over 87%! There is no question that VBM increases the turnout. In a state with traditionally narrow margins of victory, the party that ‘wins’ the VBM race in Florida will likely win its electoral votes. AND IT’S ALL ABOUT THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!

So is our postcarding having an effect? 

Here are some numbers for the efforts by Swing Left Greater Boston, the organizer of this project:

• In precincts where we are not sending postcards, VBM requests are up 5.74%. 
• In precincts that have been sent postcards with unstamped return cards, VBM requests are up 9.41%. That’s an extra 3.67 percentage points due to getting a postcard.
• In precincts that have been sent stamped return cards (i.e., two stamps per card), VBM requests are up 11.27%. That’s an extra 1.86 percentage points due to getting a postcard with a stamped reply-card.  Put another way, the extra stamp increases the effectiveness of the postcard by 50% (3.67%-> 5.53%). 

Takeaways:

1. Postcards are an effective way to encourage VBM requests, and those with two stamps are more effective.
2. VBM voters actually submit a ballot at a significantly higher rate than in-person voters.
3. Every Florida vote is incredibly important.

You’ve collectively picked up over 3,500 postcards from my front porch. Hayley and I are not easing up our efforts — we just ordered 8,000 more postcards to distribute between the two of us. 

Thank you for your continued work on this critical effort. We welcome new volunteers; please help us by spreading the word about this campaign!

Let’s keep it going. Florida needs us!

Bob Treitman